Great Fake Out Of 2023 Is Poised To Extend Into 2024, Fritz Meyer, December 2023

All year long, the economy and stock prices have fooled experts and consumers, outperforming expectations month after month.

A surprise November rally powered a 9% gain in the S&P 500, again defied expectations yet again. Now, the great fake out of 2023 is poised to extend into 2024.

Consumer sentiment never recovered after the pandemic and is languishing not far above its all-time low. Eighty percent of likely voters in six swing states say the economy is fair or poor, according to a New York Times/Sienna College poll, and only 2% say it’s excellent.

Prices on groceries and dining out are much higher than before the pandemic, and that darkens the outlook. But the higher prices are illusory -- literally and figuratively. They’re not reflective of what's real, after-inflation prices. After post-pandemic wage gains are factored in, consumers are not in bad shape and earnings are growing.  

The money illusion, a known bias documented by behavioral economics, is responsible for the overly negative sentiment and it will take time for the psychological damage inflicted by inflation in 2022 to fade.

In the meantime, the money illusion is poised to continue to extend into 2024. Objectives of Fritz Meyer's monthly classes for investment advisors include:

● contextualizing current financial economic metrics versus the long-term historical record

● providing knowledge needed to formulate and explain the outlook concisely 

● explaining Federal Reserve actions and outlook

● implementing a prudent discipline for fiduciaries managing portfolios ERISA assets

● analyzing the latest financial data, including:

● M2 is down slightly and still very high relative to its history

● last week’s Fed meet and policy pronouncements

● new-job formation in October declined but still strong

● job openings still far exceed job seekers

● savings rate plunged

● strong personal spending fueled by savings

● consumer income and spending

● DPI and savings

● household balance sheets strong

● PCED and CPI

● savings rate

● retail sales

● housing starts nosedive

● latest consensus WSJ Survey

● latest GDPNow forecast for Q3 2022 GDP

● LEI declined six straight months through Sept.

● Fed funds/10-year yield curve

● labor participation rate

● S&P 500 earnings

● manufacturing and services PMI

● auto sales

● S&P 500 expected vs current and historical p/e

● the Fed’s stock valuation mode

● the best approach to investing

Fritz Meyer, an independent economist, has taught on A4A monthly since March 2011. His monthly classes averaged a rating of 9.7 (out of 10) annually year after year. Before teaching on A4A, Fritz was senior strategist at one of the world's largest investment companies for over a decade. Ratings by participants in Fritz Meyer's monthly CE webinars for over decade have averaged 9.7 (out of 10). A former senior strategist at one of the world's largest investment companies for over a decade, Fritz is an independent economist.

This monthly course is eligibile for one hour of CE credit towards the CIMA^® and CPWA^® certifications, CFP^® CE and PACE credit toward the CLU^® and ChFC^® designations.

Who Should Attend: Financial Advisors, CFPs, EAs, CFAs, CPA/PFSs, CIMAs, CLUs and ChFCs.
Cost: There is no fee to attend this course if you are a member of Advisors4Advisors ($60/Qtr).
CPE credit: 1 hour, in the Economics field of study
Prerequisites: None
Advanced Preparation: None
Course Level: Update
Course Delivery Method: Group Internet-Based
Program Policies: For more information regarding administrative policies such as refund, cancellation and complaint, please email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

Advisors4Advisors is registered with the National Association of State Boards of Accountancy (NASBA) as a sponsor of continuing professional education on the National Registry of CPE Sponsors. State boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. Complaints regarding registered sponsors may be submitted to the National Registry of CPE Sponsors through its website: www.nasbaregistry.org. Advisors4Advisors is also approved as a continuing education sponsor by IWI, which administers the CIMA^® and CPWA^® designations, and CFP Board of Standards, which licenses the designation for CFP^® professionals.