Fritz Meyer Economic Update, November 2018

Fritz Meyer Economic Update, November 2018
Fritz Meyer
Fritz Meyer POV
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Program Id: 718630443

The stock market is recalibrating as investors reconsider the P/E multiple to apply given lower earnings growth and higher interest rates.

Though we conducted an extra "correction session" on Oct 30, so much has happened since then to review.

Last month, there were upward revisions and an upward stock market. This month, investors are cutting 2019 earnings estimates. Last month, S&P 500 2019 consensus earnings growth was +11%. This month it's +9%. And, the +9% for 2019 assumes further margin expansion from the record profit margins of 2018. Is that reasonable? Maybe not. So, what if 2019 earnings are up just 5%?

Economic data remains exceptionally good: Small business optimism, leading economic indicators, ISM purchasing managers indexes, real DPI growth, retail spending, and household net-worth are all strong.

Investors and the Fed expect continued growth through 2019 albeit at a slower clip than the boom of 2018. And, the latest inflation data is perfect. Stocks may go sideways for a while, but a recession and bear market seem unlikely any time soon.

 
Over the last 12 months, Fritz's monthly sessions averaged a 4.9 star-rating from an average of about 90 professionals who took time each month to review the sessions.



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Fritz was the strategist at one of the world's largest investment companies for over a decade, before going independent and becoming a popular monthly presenter on A4A in 2011. He's not affiliated with any products, political party, or school of economic thought. Fritz's pragmatic analysis earns his presentations 4.8-star ratings monthly.


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fabulous as always!

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