China’s Crash Could Set Off A Trade War In Asia And Cause Chaos In Capitals Across The Globe
- Created: Sunday, 30 August 2015 19:48
With stock prices plunging Monday and Tuesday amid growing concerns of an economic slowdown in China, A4A Panic Protection Coverage For Advisors continued on Thursday with a presentation from Mark DeWeaver, Ph.D., of Quantrarian Capital Management.
DeWeaver, who has previously lived and worked in China for about a decade and manages an Asian emerging market stock fund, said China’s stock market crash was just a sideshow for the upheaval that could occur in the months ahead, when countries that compete with China for exports follow China’s lead and devalue their currencies to stay competitive.
At a presentation on A4A three years ago, DeWeaver showed photos of massive industrial “ghost” cities in China and said the central government was borrowing to invest in projects at the behest of corrupt local officials.
At this session, DeWeaver touches on the Chinese business cycle and explains that the central government cannot foster growth of the Chinese economy through productivity gains. As long as the government doesn’t do anything to cause or allow social unrest, the China will continue to invest to keep the economy growing at its target rate — even at the cost of building entire cities that no one will ever live in.
If you want to understand why China’s devaluation will have a ripple effect that will be felt in the Asian Tigers and in far flung places like Moscow and Ankara, then you’ll appreciate DeWeaver’s analysis of the economic fundamentals. Mark’s average rating was a 4.2, but comments below show the research was valued by many attendees.
- Boring. Not very animated. Not enough on the US effect during the presentation
- Content was timely and intelligent.
- Very informative
- Poor - no insight
- I thought it was clear & well organized
- Great material and timely topic. Presentation a bit dry.
- Helped to flesh out my understanding of the China Situation
- It was very worthwhile. I learned some new things.
- Interesting insights!
- This was a 4 credit course in an hour...
- Very complete examination of the issues.
- Audio quality was a distraction from time to time.
- Very dry delivery
- Very good insightful information. Speaker could improve his delivery.
- Q&A was more valuable to me than the presentation. Excellent job, Andy!
- Excellent! And, spot on.
- Very technical, but understandable
- Wish he would have told us what he was going to tell us
- Tell us
- Tell us what he told us
- Including whether emerging market indexes were fairly valued or not as well as what the likelihood of further declines were."
- Dragged on too long. Mark is too monotone
- Excellent - dispassionate - well thought out explanation of what apparently is going on in the Chinese and other emerging markets economies and how there issues "may" impact the US and other developed market economies and possible equity valuations.
- I thought it was good, a little choppy since we are so used to many graphical slides from Fritz to tell the story where then Fritz's verbal comments are a backdrop to the graphics. Most importantly was his explanation of State Sponsored business, the State owned banks, the 100,000 state owned enterprises. It is hard for we who live in such a different business structure to wrap our brain around a different model in an attempt at evaluating their impacts on us.
- He gave an unusual view of the impact of the Chinese market and currency swings than the usual US media provides. Helps with perspective.
- An extremely complex topic to cover in an hour.
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