The Shape Of The Recovery; Fritz Meyer, November 2020

Election Eve Update From Fritz Meyer 
The economy grew at an anomalous 33.1% annual rate in the third quarter, according to data from BEA Friday. That’s unprecedented growth. It’s one of numerous Covid statistical anomalies distorting the shape of the recovery..  

Yes, the 33.1% growth rate is twice the previous  set in Q1 1957, and BEA’s actual growth pronouncement, which will be corrected twice in the days ahead, was stronger than the WSJ consensus prediction in mid-October. The shape of the recovery curve changed noticeably, but Fritz says it does not shorten the time it’s expected to take to return to the 4Q19 annualized GDP run-rate of $19.3 trillion.  

A full recovery – to what would have occurred had there never been a Covid recession, to full employment – is still not expected until at least 2023. Forecasts of GDP beyond two years are unreliable, which is why the WSJ and other consensus surveys of economists generally limit projections to six or seven quarters. 

ISM Manufacturing survey drops today and the Services index on Wednesday. You’ll have to wait until Friday for the most important release, however: the employment situation report from BLS. And then there’s an election!

Fritz is speaking one week after the election.on November 10, and Bob Keebler gives a post-election tax and financial planning update on Nov. 12.

Fritz Meyer Economic Updates: Professional Versus Consumer Versions
Fritz Meyer's update on the right covers the latest twist in the housing data, September 0.7% increase in the LEI, and the consensus forecasts through mid-2022 in seven-minutes.  The last two minutes of the video shows the consumer version for advisor clients. 

Because Fritz has educated advisors on economics for about 20 years, his updates are very concise. But they're not concise enough for clients. 

To retain clients and keep them on a financial plan, advisors must continually offer remind clients to keep them on course. That is especially true during a pivotal week like this, with U.S. tax, economic, and Covid-crisis policy riding on the election.  

The seven-minute version of Fritz's update distills the crucial facts a financial professional needs to know right now, but the two-minute version that follows boils down the current outloook to a simple message. 

Financial fiduciaries are information gatekeepers, but the pace of news and nature of the information makes streaming strategic wealth management content on a continual basis extrmeely difficult for RIAs. Which is why we create a consumer version of thought leadership CE classes on A4A. 

Free consultation about how to use our platform in your RIA  
     

November 2020 Class Description

For financial fiduciaries, this class covers one of the most pivotal points in years. The shape of the recovery is now in clear focus. The "V" came and went. Now what?

With the Covid and election resolving, the fundamentals are clearer. So is how long it will take to return to the $19.3 trillion GDP of 2019 and when the U.S. might achieve full employment again.

At this class for CFA^®, CIMA^®, CPA and CFP^® professionals, Fritz Meyer, an independent economist not affiliated with any financial products, reviews:

Skip RMDs And Convert To A Roth
The unprecedented election to skip RMDs by the end of the year, along with a conversion to a Roth IRA account, could stretch IRA accounts for clients. 

Advisors should be telling their retirement income clients about this year-end tax tip right now. However, it is a complex two step process since it involves the one-time CARES RMD provision and also a conversion to a Roth IRA. So you likely will not see this written in advisor email newsletters or blogs. Here's a video that tells clients the basics in about a minute. 

RIAs Must Keep Wealth Management Priorities In Perspective

Perhaps the most important job of an advisor is as a financial "choice decider." You set the agenda for clients, prioritizing what they could and should do to build their wealth.

As the financial choice decider, it’s important to tell clients that the best choice they could make right now is to pay attention to tax planning, amid the stock market’s attention-grabbing gyrations. 

The video on the right puts financial professionals in the role of choice decider in the current financial economic and tax situation.