The economic recovery is over—many economists think the economy should turn in a more normal performance during 2013.
The news is both good and bad. The likelihood of another recession is diminishing, yet the possibilities that rapid growth will bring down the unemployment rate are also fading.
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The recovery technically was over in late 2011 when economic outlook, adjusted for inflation, returned to its pre-crisis peak.
But gross domestic product (GDP) still has not matched pre-2007 levels. For more than three years after 2009, unemployment remained high, housing was depressed, and practically any economic hurdle kindled fears of slipping back into recession.
Employment growth has stabilized at about 150,000 new jobs per month. Unemployment dropped below 8% in September and more sectors of the economy are contributing to growth.
The fiscal cliff still is a looming threat
and the chances of a new recession are the same as the chances for greater than 3% growth—24%.
Concern about the global economy plus issues surrounding the fiscal cliff will make the return to robust growth a long road but the stabilization is a positive sign.