Rate Hikes Are Paused But Cuts Unlikely Till 2024, Fritz Meyer, May 2023

The index of U.S. leading economic indicators (LEI) rolled 13 months ago, and economists at The Conference Board (TCB) still predict a recession is likely to begin by the end of the second quarter. TCB incorrectly had predicted a recession would start in the first quarter of 2023, but GDP grew 1.1%. In this class, you'll learn why the LEI’s manufacturing component may account for the erroneous signal.

Forward-looking economic indicators, like the LEI, can grow outdated over time because the economy changes. Fritz Meyer, an independent economist, says in this class the LEI's weighting of the manufacturing sector may explain why TCB has been wrong in forecasting a recession. Particpants gain perspective on current readings of \reliable time-tested measures, such as the Federal Reserve's stock valuation metric, price-earnings multiples and other key metrics for understanding investment prices.    

One-year forward-looking and historic  earnings multiples are discussed. The latest Standard & Poor’s 500 performance and volatlity are drilled into. Objectives of Fritz Meyer's monthly classes for investment advisors include:

• contextualizing current financial economic metrics versus their history
• providing knowledge to formulate and explain the outlook concisely 
• explaining Federal Reserve actions and its outlook
• implementing a prudent discipline for fiduciaries managing ERISA assets
• analyzing the latest financial data, including:
  • M2 is down but still high relative to its history
  • the Fed's last meeting and policy pronouncements
  • new-job formation 
  • job openings still far exceed job seekers
  • the savings rate plunge back to normalcy 
  • strong consumer income and spending
  • DPI and savings
  • household balance sheets 
  • PCED and CPI for the past 12 months
  • recent PCED annualized  
  • savings rate
  • retail sales
  • housing starts
  • latest consensus forecast from the quarterly WSJ survey
  • latest GDPNow forecast for Q2 2023 GDP
  • LEI declined 13 straight months through April
  • Fed funds/10-year yield curve
  • labor participation rate
  • manufacturing and services PMI
  • auto sales
  • the Fed’s stock valuation model
  • the best approach to investing

Ratings by particpants in Fritz Meyer's monthly CE webinars for over decade have averaged 9.7 (out of 10). A former senior strategist at one of the world's largest investment companies for over a decade, Fritz is an independent economist.

This monthly course is eligibile for one hour of CE credit towards the CIMA^® and CPWA^® certifications, CFP^® CE and PACE credit toward the CLU^® and ChFC^® designations.

Who Should Attend: Financial Advisors, CFPs, EAs, CFAs, CPA/PFSs, CIMAs, CLUs and ChFCs.
Cost: There is no fee to attend this course if you are a member of Advisors4Advisors ($120/year).
CPE credit: 1 hour, in the Economics field of study
Prerequisites: None
Advanced Preparation: None
Course Level: Update
Course Delivery Method: Group Internet-Based
Program Policies: For more information regarding administrative policies such as refund, cancellation and complaint, please email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

Advisors4Advisors is registered with the National Association of State Boards of Accountancy (NASBA) as a sponsor of continuing professional education on the National Registry of CPE Sponsors. State boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. Complaints regarding registered sponsors may be submitted to the National Registry of CPE Sponsors through its website: www.nasbaregistry.org. Advisors4Advisors is also approved as a continuing education sponsor by IWI, which administers the CIMA^® and CPWA^® designations, and CFP Board of Standards, which licenses the designation for CFP^® professionals.