Fed Not Done Hiking Rates But A Soft Landing Is Still Possible, Fritz Meyer Economic Update, November 2022

Housing starts are way down. So are the purchasing managers indexes for services and manufacturing. And the Leading Economic Indicator index for the U.S. has declined the last seven straight months.  Despite all the signs a recession is on the way, it’s possible that Federal Reserve interest rate policymakers could still engineer a soft landing.  

Objectives of Fritz Meyer's monthly classes for investment advisors include:

• contextualizing current financial economic metrics versus the long-term historical record
• providing knowledge needed to formulate and explain the outlook concisely 
• explaining Federal Reserve actions and outlook
• implementing a prudent discipline for fiduciaries managing portfolios ERISA assets
• analyzing the latest financial data, including:
  • M2 is down slightly and still very high relative to its history
  • last week’s Fed meet and policy pronouncements
  • new-job formation in October declined but still strong
  • job openings still far exceed job seekers
  • savings rate plunged
  • strong personal spending fueled by savings
  • consumer income and spending
  • DPI and savings
  • household balance sheets strong
  • PCED and CPI
  • savings rate
  • retail sales
  • housing starts nosedive
  • latest consensus WSJ Survey
  • latest GDPNow forecast for Q3 2022 GDP
  • LEI declined six straight months through Sept.
  • Fed funds/10-year yield curve
  • labor participation rate
  • S&P 500 earnings
  • manufacturing and services PMI
  • auto sales
  • S&P 500 expected vs current and historical p/e
  • the Fed’s stock valuation mode
  • the best approach to investing