Focusing On What's Important Amid Multiple Economic Anomalies, Fritz Meyer Economic Update, August 2022

Fritz Meyer
Tuesday, August 9, 2022 4PM EST
CFP® Live CPA IWI
Program Id: 547014635
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Despite two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, the United States is not in a recession but is undergoing an inventory correction. That’s one of multiple concurrent anomalies making the financial economic outlook more complicated than in living memory.   
 
The March 2020 pandemic forced a partial shutdown of the economy. It was followed by an unprecedented government response -- trillions of direct transfer payments to consumers, which caused supply chain bottlenecks, inflation, labor market dislocation, and was complicated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, which triggered an energy price and political crisis in Europe as well as the U.S. 
 
FrItz Meyer, whose monthly classes averaged a rating of more than 9.7 (out 10) from practitioners throughout the past decade, has lived through a few crises since starting his career as a financial economics advisor in 1973. In this 1 credit class sponsored by Advisors4Advisors, he gives his unvarnished point of view of the latest economic, stock market, and inflation data, including:   
 
 
Economy:
 
    ●  Q2 GDP reported negative – second consecutive quarter
    ●  LEI rolling over
    ●  Yield curve (fed funds/10 year) headed for inversion
    ●  ISM services PMI is still strong
    ●  528,000 new jobs in July means no recession
    ●  Conflicting signals make this is the most unusual economy in decades
 
Stock market:
 
    ●  Surprising rally back to just -13.5% correction from January peak
    ●  P/E ratio back to 17.4 from 15.5 low
    ●  Earnings estimates only shaved (not whacked)
 
Inflation:
 
    ●  Some signs of peaking – ISM surveys
    ●  Headline up, core down (CPI and PCED)
    ●  Gasoline down
    ●  Inflation expectations are down (FRBNY survey)
    ●  Demand shock for goods is diminishing

More than 50 hours of CFP® CE credit and more than 100 hours of Investments & Wealth Institute® credit on replays available 24/7 to paying members ($120 annually) of
Advisors4Advisors.com. CPAs are eligible to receive CPE for attending live webinars only. To learn how to receive continuing professional education credit viewing webinar replays, please see our detailed instructions.

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