An Economy On The Edge; Fritz Meyer Economic Update, July 2022

GDPNow, the Atlanta Fed’s algorithm for real-time estimate for U.S. GDP growth, says the economy will shrink about -1.1% this quarter, but the consensus forecast of economists is for +2.9% GDP growth.

The savings rate has declined but M2 remains exceptionally strong.

Earnings forecasts for 2022 and 2023 have not yet been lowered but inflation may make that okay.

With the economy on the edge of a recession, a one-month-old bear market in stocks, inflation running at an 8.6% annual rate, Russia continuing its threat to the U.S. global geopolitical framework, and Covid-19 perhaps not quite done with us, Fritz Meyer focuses on the data to help practitioners gain clarity in a confusing time.

  ● GDPNow
 ● Commodity prices are rolling over
  ● PCE Deflator peaked
 ● Services and Manufacturing PMI healthy
  ● Personal income and spending
  ● Americans dipping into savings
  ● M2 update
  ● The problem with corporate earnings

Fritz Meyer has taught this course for over a decade and his publicly-available track record sets him apart from the never-ending stream of perspectives obscuring what’s most important for advisors to know: His last 12 classes averaged a rating of 9.7 (on a 10-point scale).