The Long, Hot Summer; Fritz Meyer, June 2022, Financial Economic Update

Looks like it could be a long hot, summer for investors. The Fed must convince consumers it’s stopping inflation fast, but runway room for a soft-landing is growing shorter.

The Fed hiked rates a half-point on May 4 and is expected to announce another half-point hike on June 15, with yet one more hike expected on July 27, and a worse-than-expected CPI release on Friday makes yet another half point hike in September more likely.

With all eyes focused on the inflation drama, other threats to the economy linger: The war in Ukraine, supply chain bottlenecks, and Covid subvariants remained risks to GDP. At this class, independent economist Fritz Meyer charts current inflation conditions amid the unusual turbulence. Chart topics include:

● the problem with the labor participation rate: America’s labor force is smaller
● lessons from the Inflation wave of 1965-82
● risk of yield curve of inversion increased
● S&P 500 earnings
● new-job formation in May was better than expected
● service sector PMI declined in May to its historic norm
● the job situation
● consumer income and spending
● car sales surge
● new-home construction
● savings
● M2
● S&P 500 expected earnings versus current and historical p/e
● the Fed’s stock valuation mode
● Fed's latest policy pronouncement
● DPI and savings May 2021
● May latest LEI
● household balance sheets strong

Fritz Meyer has taught this course for over a decade and his publicly-available track record sets him apart from the never-ending stream of perspectives obscuring what’s most important for advisors to know: His last 12 classes averaged a rating of 9.7 (on a 10-point scale).
 

This webinar is eligible for one hour of CE credit towards the CIMA® and CPWA® certifications, CFP® CE, PACE credit toward the CLU® and ChFC® designations, and live CPA CPE credit.