What’s Driving Stocks To Record Highs? Fritz Meyer, Financial Economics CE Live

Fritz Meyer
04/13/21 4 PM EST
CFP® Live CPA
Program Id: 880988955
9.8
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What’s Driving Stocks To Record Highs? Fritz Meyer Live

Coinciding with the Covid recovery, stocks returned an astounding 56.4% in the last 12 months. Is the Covid comeback over?

Fritz Meyer, an independent economist who has taught financial economics to professionals in CE classes monthly on A4A to rave reviews for 10 years, shows data on:

the M2 explosion
why a jobs recovery is suddenly no longer years off
the full recovery expected in 15 months
S&P 500 expected earnings versus current valuation
latest FAANGM versus broad-market valuations
why traditional stock valuation metrics do not apply now
current valuations versus the last stock bubble
the Fed’s stock valuation model
0% rates as far as the eye can see
latest CBO report on long-term U.S. debt
evolving views of U.S. debt
U.S. debt cost to the next generation
Jerome Powell on inflation
the March 2021 jobs situation report
ISM purchasing managers survey for March 2021
DPI and consumer spending data for March 2021
latest LEI
the housing comeback
household balance sheets
U.S. total tax burden versus major world economies
active versus passive 20-year performance
gurus saying the darndest things
conditions one-year ago versus now
10 years on A4A


This webinar is pending eligibility for one hour of CE credit towards the CIMA® and CPWA® certifications, and it is eligible for CFP® CE, PACE credit toward the CLU® and ChFC® designations, and live CPA CPE credit.

Weekly Wealth Management Roundup For Clients Of Wealth Managers

Legislation introduced by Democrats in the Senate would hike the estate tax on the top half of the 1% of wealthiest Americans, and Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen, told the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday that her views on the size of the national debt have evolved since 2017. Here’s a roundup of content from A4A’s thought leaders in a consumer-friendly format advisors distribute to educate their clients.

 

 

Unprecedented Spikes & Plunges In DPI, Spending, & Savings In Perspective

Personal income and the savings rate dropped sharply in February but remained strong nonetheless due to government stimulus. Expect another spike to show up in government reports in April. F ritz Meyer goes over the latest releases and puts the extraordinary times in perspective.

 

 

 

Consensus Forecast: Expect A Full Recovery In 15 Months

In this 10-minute video update, Fritz Meyer says the consensus forecast is for a boom.

As reported two weeks ago, the Fed says it is not going to act preemptively in anticipation of higher inflation. Fed chief Jerome Powell said two weeks ago that he makes the same mistake he did in December 2018, when he acted on a whiff of inflation and nearly caused a recession.

Details about that policy shift are evidenced in the newly released Fed’s survey of the FOMC and the 12 presidents Fed Bank presidents.

When the December WSJ consensus forecast was published, the 60 economists polled monthly were forecasting the nation would remain far from full-recovery. At that point, it looked like it might take many years for US GDP to return to the same size as before the pandemic. Now the full recovery is 15 months away, based on the latest consensus forecast.

 

 

Fritz Meyer Answers Questions From Advisors

Fritz Meyer’s webinar on March 10 was rated a 9.7 (out of 10), but we ran out of time to answer questions from the CFP, CPA and other professionals. Below are the questions, which are answered in this 15-minute video.

 Questions:
1. (Cathy Pinard) Can you comment on the price of lumber up over 100% over the last year and what do you see going forward? Do you see it continuing to rise indefinitely?

2. (Lisa Casciaro) Curious as to what Fritz's thoughts are on Bitcoin.

3. (Steven Erickson) Are the PEG calculations based upon forward earnings or recent past earnings?

4. (Edward Fulbright) Lucid vs Tesla opinions?

5. (Chris Gilmor) While herd immunity may occur in the US in April or soon thereafter, 130 countries have no vaccine atm. The World is a small place and Covid will likely be with us for some time. I think there is a real risk of some Covid variant making an appearance. Would a prolonged pandemic send the economy or market off the rails again?

6. (Joe Klingen) Won't increasing taxes decrease consumption spending, ie. GDP?

7. (Joseph “Chip” Montgomery) Fritz, what is your view of Modern Monetary Theory?

8. (William Pitney) Given Powell’s statement about bonds, should we consider increasing allocation to stocks.  Maybe moving from the moderate 60/40 to a 70/30 model to mute the concern with bonds?

9. (George Robertson) RE: GDP growth potential vs other countries... you never seem to include India in working age growth population... Why not?

10. (Mark La Spisa) Can Fritz in a future presentation discuss what his thoughts are on what is driving Tesla and Bitcoin?

11. (Mark La Spisa) Why do so many of Fritz slides use different historical periods?  Some go back to 2010, others go back to 2000 others go much farther. My concern is if I ever share what I learn from Fritz, I could be accused of data mining.

  

Explaining The High Price/Earnings Ratio Of Stocks

This week’s video for advisor clients is about the opportunity for investors, as the nation emerges from the Covid pandemic. While preparing for a wild ride in the stock market, financial consumers advisors typically target are prompted to consider how they might capitalize on panicked selloffs that seem quite possible in the near-term.

Borrowing from Fritz Meyer’s view of current financial economic conditions, the call to think about capitalizing the current confluence of unprecedented conditions is explained in two minutes. It explains why the high price/earnings ratios on the S&P 500 are not a good gauge of the risk of the current stock market. Keep in mind, this video is part of the continuing education campaigns advisors send to their clients and prospects. So it’s not coming out of left field. It’s a story told in an ongoing series of messages to clients about financial and tax planning for the long run.

The consumer education produced based on CE classes on A4A is not like the content provided by other advisor website companies. It’s more intelligent and tells stories that are complicated in articles, videos, GIFs, tweets, and email newsletters to engage investors by teaching them based on concepts taught on A4A.


More than 50 hours of CFP® CE credit and more than 100 hours of Investments & Wealth Institute® credit on replays available 24/7 to paying members ($120 annually) of
Advisors4Advisors.com. CPAs are eligible to receive CPE for attending live webinars only. To learn how to receive continuing professional education credit viewing webinar replays, please see our detailed instructions.

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Excellent, as always.

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