Fritz Meyer Economic Update, December 2018

Fritz Meyer Economic Update, December 2018
Fritz Meyer
Fritz Meyer POV
Tue, 11. December 2018, 04:00 PM EST - 05:00 PM EST
Live CPA - 1 credit
Program Id: 792156771

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Tariffs, rates, and the economy are raising fears.

What if our worst fears are realized? The U.S. imposes a 25% tariff on everything we import from China. Both JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs conclude it might knock 0.1% off of 2019 GDP. A showstopper for the U.S. economy?

The yield curve inverted, The New York Times and major TV cable news stations reported last week. But that's inaccurate! The yield curve has flattened but it's not close to inversion! FOMC members disdain yield curve inversion and Fed chair Jerome Powell has taken a more dovish stance.

Momentum. Growth in new jobs, wages, personal and small business income brought strength in personal spending. It's hard to imagine the economy turning down suddenly, given record strength in small business optimism and the leading economic indicators, along with November's jump in the manufacturing purchasing managers index and in the new-orders sub-index.

The stock market is re-calibrating, as investors rethink earnings growth and P/E multiples. Stock market gains may be limited as expectations downshift. However, just because earnings growth is expected to go from spectacular in 2018 to normal in 2019, doesn't mean a bear market is likely.


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Fritz was the strategist at one of the world's largest investment companies for over a decade, before going independent and becoming a popular monthly presenter on A4A in 2011. He's not affiliated with any products, political party, or school of economic thought.


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