Economy's Upward Track Will Make Whoever Sits In The White House Look Good Over The Next Four Years
Created: Tuesday, 06 November 2012 08:08
Even if the fiscal cliff hits at the beginning of the year, things should improve as 2013 moves along. Some economists think growth could get back to the 3% - 4% level by the end of next year.
Investors are beginning to look beyond issues in the world economy as well as political gridlock at home.
The global economy is also showing signs of improvement. China’s economic woes seem to be bottoming out. And even though Europe’s economy is still contracting, its recessionary cycle will also end at some point.
Allen Sinai, CEO of Decision Economics Inc., says the US economy will grow slowly until 2015 because it is being held back by an albatross of deficits and debt.
Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO, is less optimistic with his view that structural changes the US is facing weigh heavier than cyclical factors.
The broken housing –finance system, the high unemployment rate and youth unemployment, and the difficulty the Fed will face going forward in being able to support economic expansion are specific issues El-Erian says must be dealt with.
But consumers are recession weary and are siding with the optimists. Pent-up demand
for everything from housing to autos to iPhones will continue to shore up the economic recovery and even make the ill-effects of Sandy short-lived.
These are all factors that will continue regardless of who sits in the White House the next four years.
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