Fritz Webinar Attendees Are Not Overly Optimistic About 2019 Stock Returns

Sixty-two percent of A4A members expect 2019 to be a sub-par year for the stock market, while 38% expect a good year ahead.  

According to a poll, taken following the bear market low of Christmas Eve and 5% rebound on December 26, 2018, 

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 46% of attendees said the S&P 500 would return less than the long term annual return 10% in 2019, with 5% expecting a return of 5% or less and 11% predicting a loss of more than 5%.

Meanwhile, 38% said 2019 would be an above average year, with 24% expecting a  return of more than 10% and 14% forecasting a return of more than 15% on the S&P 500. 

The poll was taken at a breaking news CE webinar for CFP®, CIMA®, CPA/PFS and other financial professionals led by independent economist Fritz Meyer and can be replayed for free by A4A members. A4A costs $10 a month and is an online news feed in a continuing professional education format for private wealth professionals.

Fritz, who is expecting S&P 500 earnings in 2019 to be in line with the historical norm of 7.4%, has guided advisors through the heights of the bull market as well as the recent bear phase in a monthly CE webinar series since April 2011, says the expansion cycle is not over. He criticized Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for his December 19 decision to hike rates, saying the Fed chief was not listening to the  markets. His sober assessment is reflected in the expectations of A4A's audience of professionals polled. 

Though Fritz has received a 4.9-star rating month after month on A4A for the last few years from a growing number of attendees, to the extent Fritz has critics, they often say he's a permabull, pollyanna, and permanent optimist. However, this poll result shows the financial advisors attending Fritz Meyer's monthly sessions certainly cannot be described as an overly optimistic bunch. The received wisdom is shown here to be a group of professionals with a realistic outlook.   

   

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