Fritz Meyer Economic Update, March 2021

Fritz Meyer
03/09/21 4 PM EST
Live CPA
Program Id: 366506683

Amazon Profits By Perpetuating Stock Bubble Myth

With fear of a stock market bubble spreading in the media, shirts are being sold on Amazon depicting Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell in priestly garb and holding a book proclaiming the “recession cancelled” and that “stocks only go up.” As fashionable as it may be on the WallStreetBets Reddit thread where it surfaced, the shirt, ironically, does not fit with financial reality.




Fritz Meyer Answers Questions From Advisors

At the February class, advisors asked about inflation, modern monetary theory, stock valuations and the shape of the recovery.

Fritz Meyer, who received a 9.7 out of 10 for this CE class with his monthly economic and investment class, answers 15 questions in this 24-minute video.

To buy the slides for Fritz’s monthly webinars for $50 a month for the next year, set up and account or log in here.



A First Draft Of Financial History And CE Credit      
Vaccines are becoming widely available, and, as a sad chapter in American history ends, a new one is already being written. The pages of economic history turn slowly and ceaselessly and yet are often unexpected. This class is a first-draft of history for personal financial advisors in a CE format. It's just the facts historians will use to judge this unprecedented period scarred by the pandemic.       

Fritz Meyer has charted financial economic trends for decades using a method he adopted at Dartmouth College’s Amos Tuck School of Business. Before he began teaching on A4A a decade ago, Mr. Meyer spent 15 years at Invesco, one of the world's largest investment companies. managing large-cap equity mutual funds and multi-cap equity and fixed-income portfolios. For another decade, he served as investment strategist, educator to intermediaries, and spokesperson for the firm in the financial press.



Why The Fed Is Unlikely To Pull The Punch Bowl Anytime Soon

In this 12-minute video, Fritz begins with about five minutes on the latest ISM purchasing managers data for January and then shows the Federal Reserve’s stock market valuation metric, which is relied on by the central bank to gauge whether the stock market is headed toward bubble territory. The benchmark was buried in the Fed’s November 2020 Financial Stability Report and it’s important in helping advisors and clients growing nervous about the market’s record breaking performance recently.



How To Warn Clients About The GameStop Madness

Like lemmings going over a cliff, small investors a have been buying shares of GameStop and a few other stocks that hedge funds had bet against, causing a short-squeeze that is captivating media attention. The issue has become a populist cause, which makes it all the more alluring to some. Here’s how we warned advisor clients about the GameStop madness.





Fritz On Yellen's New Role, A $30 Trillion Debt, And Tax Hikes In 2022

Fritz Meyer thought he was done after 2½ minutes but then I asked him about Janet Yellen’s appointment as Treasury Secretary, which led to discussing the unexpected $6- to 8-trillion explosion of the U.S. debt, to $30 trillion, due to the Covid fiscal programs.

Fritz's answers are surprising.

He sees Janet Yellen as another voice for fiscal stimulus. Unlike when she was Fed chair, Ms. Yellen has swept aside any concerns about growth of the national. She's an advocate for budget busting in her new role.

Jerome Powell's comments at a press conference yesterday about the Fed's definition of full emplyment made clear he and Ms. Yellen would work together. Mr. Powell said pockets of weakness would be considered in achieving full employment, a concept that will appeal to Ms. Yellen, a labor economist and supporter of government stimulus in crises.  

Fritz's expectation that the Biden Administration will not hike taxes in 2021 does not seem to jibe with Bob Keebler's latest class.  We'll keep you posted on reconciling that difference. 



Foreign And Commodities Fall Off Efficient Frontier Over 25 Years

Fritz Meyer dispenses quickly with the new business owner optimism survey index from the NFIB and summarizing December retail sales data, and then explains why he believes commodities and foreign stocks no longer belong in a diversified portfolio. The 25-year results make a case for shifting from a traditional seven-asset core-portfolio to a five-asset portfolio.





Sector Picking Versus A Strategic Approach


Since 2007, Fritz Meyer an independent economist, has tracked the S&P 500 sector predictions by 10 strategists from Wall Street’s largest firms in a survey published in Barron’s every December.

Asking Wall Street’s best minds to predict which sectors will outperform and underperform is a recipe for failure. No one can predict the future of the 10 industry sectors over the next 12 months with any reliability. The premise of the story represents an old approach to investing. Yet the financial press and Wall Street are still complicit in promulgating the old approach.

Independent financial advisors with credentials from CFP Board, state boards of accountancy, IWI, and CFA Institute are taught about strategic investment techniques and focus on tax-managed results. This video draws a contrast between Wall Street’s old ways and the work of financial and tax planning professionals.

With a media blitz of predictions by gurus in the financial press this month, this video is a timely warning for long-term investors. The stream of content we provide for consumers draws clients based on facts and differentiates independent fiduciaries from competitors.


More than 50 hours of CFP® CE credit and more than 100 hours of Investments & Wealth Institute® credit on replays available 24/7 to paying members ($120 annually) of CPAs are eligible to receive CPE for attending live webinars only. To learn how to receive continuing professional education credit viewing webinar replays, please see our detailed instructions.

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