Fritz Meyer Economic Update, December 2020

Fritz Meyer
12/08/20 4 PM EST
Live CPA
Program Id: 599181883


The Financial Impact Of Poltical Abnormality 
Fritz Meyer sticks to the economic statistics in this update, until asked whether President Trump’s effort to overthrow the election results is having any effects on financial markets. 

Retail sales rose slightly less than expected but are still strong, housing is booming, and the LEI rose again, in line with what Fritz has been expecting. So the economy is doing fine.

However, U.S. political derision and dysfunction is abnormal. So I was obliged to ask Fritz about the Elephant in the room: the impact of political abnormaility. 

In this week's update, I shared my video-cam with Fritz and he reciprocated, resulting in this impromptu look at our faces. That's why I am in my gardening getup. We'll be more deliberate about video-cam sharing next time. 

Class Description For December
The nation is enduring  dramatic economic and political crisis and every month for a decade, many of the the nation's best financial professionals stop whatever they're doing for an hour to view Fritz Meyer's financial economic update.

Fritz Meyer says the net result of the poitical drama is continued gridilck, which is good for Wall Street, oddly. he explains that and goes over:
- housing boom
- manufacturing boom
- FAANGM valuation
- household cash-hoarde
- U.S. total tax burden versus major world economies 
- TV guru predictions 

The final class description is likely to change based on breaking news events.  

Fritz Meyer is an independent economist. In monthly webinars on A4A since April 2011, Fritz has averaged about a 4.8-star rating from independent investment professionals attending the sessions.Fritz explains economic fundamentals driving investment markets, drawing on three decades of experience as a money manager and investment strategist at one of the world's largest investment companies.


Election Eve Update From Fritz Meyer 
The economy grew at an anomalous 33.1% annual rate in the third quarter, according to data from BEA Friday. That’s unprecedented growth. It’s one of numerous Covid statistical anomalies distorting the shape of the recovery..  

Yes, the 33.1% growth rate is twice the previous  set in Q1 1957, and BEA’s actual growth pronouncement, which will be corrected twice in the days ahead, was stronger than the WSJ consensus prediction in mid-October. The shape of the recovery curve changed noticeably, but Fritz says it does not shorten the time it’s expected to take to return to the 4Q19 annualized GDP run-rate of $19.3 trillion.  

A full recovery – to what would have occurred had there never been a Covid recession, to full employment – is still not expected until at least 2023. Forecasts of GDP beyond two years are unreliable, which is why the WSJ and other consensus surveys of economists generally limit projections to six or seven quarters. 

ISM Manufacturing survey drops today and the Services index on Wednesday. You’ll have to wait until Friday for the most important release, however: the employment situation report from BLS. And then there’s an election!

Fritz is speaking one week after the election.on November 10, and Bob Keebler gives a post-election tax and financial planning update on Nov. 12.


Fritz Meyer Economic Updates: Professional Versus Consumer Versions
Fritz Meyer's update on the right covers the latest twist in the housing data, September 0.7% increase in the LEI, and the consensus forecasts through mid-2022 in seven-minutes.  The last two minutes of the video is the consumer version for advisor clients. 

Because Fritz has educated advisors on economics for about 20 years, his updates are very concise. But they're not concise enough for clients.  

To retain clients and keep them on a financial plan, advusors must continually keep clients on course, especially during a pivotal week like this one, with U.S. tax, economic, and Covid-crisis policies riding on the national election.  

The long version of Fritz's update distills the crucial facts a financial professional needs to know right now, but the two-minute version that follows boils down the current outloook to a simple message. 

Financial fiduciaries are information gatekeepers, but the pace of news makes streaming strategic wealth management content on a continual basis extremely difficult to RIAs. Which is why we create a consumer version of thought leadership CE classes on A4A. 

Free consultation about how to use our platform in your RIA  

Skip RMDs And Convert To A Roth
The unprecedented election to skip RMDs by the end of the year, along with a conversion to a Roth IRA account, could stretch IRA accounts for clients. 

Advisors should be telling their retirement income clients about this year-end tax tip right now. However, it is a complex two step process since it involves the one-time CARES RMD provision and also a conversion to a Roth IRA. So you likely will not see this written in advisor email newsletters or blogs. Here's a video that tells clients the basics in about a minute. 


RIAs Must Keep Wealth Management Priorities In Perspective

Perhaps the most important job of an advisor is as a financial "choice decider." You set the agenda for clients, prioritizing what they could and should do to build their wealth.

As the financial choice decider, it’s important to tell clients that the best choice they could make right now is to pay attention to tax planning, amid the stock market’s attention-grabbing gyrations. 

The video on the right puts financial professionals in the role of choice decider in the current financial economic and tax situation. 

More than 50 hours of CFP® CE credit and more than 100 hours of Investments & Wealth Institute® credit on replays available 24/7 to paying members ($120 annually) of CPAs are eligible to receive CPE for attending live webinars only. To learn how to receive continuing professional education credit viewing webinar replays, please see our detailed instructions.

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