Fritz Meyer: Fed’s Economic Forecasting Model Is Broken

The Federal Reserve’s model of the economy is broken, independent economist Fritz Meyer says in his latest CE class on Advisors4Advisors.

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This is the first time the yield-curve inverted since we began CE for CFP® and other professionals in late 2008, but it’s not Fritz Meyer’s first inversion!  Amid the din daily from the news media, Fritz is a voice of wisdom and experience. Fritz not only recalls the last inversion preceding The Great Recession, but the inversions in 1998 and 1995.

By 1996, Fritz was managing institutional money at Invesco, one of the world’s largest investment companies, and soon also managed public mutual funds. In 2001, he was named the firm’s senior investment strategist, charged with educating intermediaries, as Invesco focused on retail. By 2001, Fritz was a public face for a retail behemoth, and over the years became a frequent guest on CNBC, the voice of reason whenever the stock market dropped sharply. Between crises, Fritz’s daily job was educating advisors who sold Invesco products. 

For decades, Fritz habitually has gathered monthly-, quarterly-, and annually-released data and methodically tracked the fundamentals driving the economy, transforming the raw data into charts summarizing his analysis.  Fritz internalized the numbers, because of his habit. He feels the data.

After the global financial crisis, when I started conducting weekly webinars, I was looking for an independent economist to teach "The Financial Crisis Webinar Series."  Ed Yardeni, a mutual friend and world-class economist, suggested Fritz and I speak.  It was perfect timing! Fritz wanted to share his research with professionals independent of any investment product company, which was exactly what  I was looking for -- an independent economist I could trust with a burgeoning community of fiduciaries. Fritz's CE class ratings and reviews -- nine years of monthly ratings data -- is inarguable evidence of his value to our professional community.      

So, when Fritz says the Fed’s model for forecasting the economy is broken, it’s important news for advisors that you just won’t hear elsewhere. The pointed criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s pronouncements on inflation is just one of dozens insights of crucial importance to advisors that is covered in this 1-CE credit class for CFP®, CIMA®, ChFC®, CLU®, and other financial professonals.  

Eighty-one of the 87 advisors who rated the class, gave it five stars, and six gave it a four-star rating. Forty-two of the attendees wrote the short reviews shown below. Fritz’s average rating: 4.9

 

Reviews:

  • Informative as usual
  • great, these continued updates help with confidence which we believe comes through to client meetings
  • great
  • Great update....
  • always great information
  • Andy is great.
  • Clear explanation of complicated subject
  • good
  • Very informative.
  • Always great
  • Excellent, as always.
  • Excellent.  Very helpful.
  • Very good.
  • very good.
  • Great info in light of current happenings.
  • timely
  • With all that is going on in the financial world today it's great to get Fritz update.
  • Wish it was weekly.
  • Excellent
  • excellent
  • Fritz does not have an agenda ie trying to sell something so his objective view of what is happening in the economy is appreciated. Look forward to it each month.
  • Always great
  • An interesting review of the Feds decision and their reversal of rates.
  • GOOD INFO
  • very informative
  • Very timely
  • Excellent as always.
  • Great as always Most informative
  • Excellent
  • They talk too much, some of the general BS can be cut down to make it more efficient.  I have people waiting to talk to me.
  • outstanding, great presentation
  • Excellent as usual.  It is very good to have Fritz available when we are going through possible economic changes
  • as always both enjoyed it and found it very informative
  • Always a great presentation with relevant information.
  • Thanks for focusing so acutely on the yield curve inversion Fritz and for helping us all understand the true implications. Your comments on how to present volatility to clients (towards the end of the presentation) are very helpful. The various points that you made during that short explanation are all valid and should be used by A4A members to communicate with clients regarding market volatility and the risk premium that you so often refer to. Thank you for your continued dedication and clear direction.
  • Great update of last one!  Outstanding!
  • Fritz is terrific.
  • Always great to get Fritz's read of the economy's and market's pulse.
  • succinct
  • like it very much
  • He mentioned CDOs in the presentation, but I am curious of Fritz's thoughts of the massive increase in BBB bonds and the potential for those to transition to junk status over the next couple of years, what that portends for the fixed income market as well as the stock market.
  • excellent