Class Description
At this one-credit class, Fritz Meyer updates consensus forecasts for earnings and GDP growth. A key objective of this session is to give investment advisors context for judging the market’s current valuation.

While stocks are fully valued and susceptible to more frequent peaks and nosedives -- as they head sideways -- between now and the end of next year.

The latest ISM purchasing managers indexes give reason to believe the worst is behind us.


Fritz was a portfolio manager in the mid-1990s at Invesco, one of the world's largest investment companies, and then Senior Investment Strategist for over a decade. Fritz has advised advisors on A4A since March 2011.

Fritz's monthly updates averaged a 4.9-star rating for the past year, and past performance is an indicator of future results: data-driven strategic long-term analysis for professional investors.
 

(June 2,2020)  This two-minute video summarizes Frits Meyer's analysis of the cost of the epidemic to U.S. gross domestic product over the next two years.  The goal of this client video is to provide perspective for retirement investors and reset their expectations in light of the epidemic. Based on guidance from the  the consensus forecast  for the next seven quarters, the return to the record GDP level of the last quarter of 2019 won't happen until the end of 1Q22.      

(May 29, 2020)   Disposable income per capita surged from $46,000 a year to more than $51,000 last month because of cash payments authorized in the CARES Act. The savings rates in April skyrocketed, too.
 
Fritz breaks down the anomalistic data coming from BEA and also notes the slight uptick  on the consumer sentiment survey from University of Michigan. The possibility of a second wave of the outbreak and the setback to the economy are also discussed in this 12 minute update..

(May 26, 2020) Newly released economic data are starting to make it look like a new bull market, may have somehow managed to sneak up on investors. As always it's  entirely unexpected.

The S&P 500 is shown versus U.S. recessions since 1957, in this eight-minute update from Fritz Meyer, an indpendent economist who teaches monthly free continuing ed classes for CFP^® professionals to Advisors4Advisors members.

The latest forecasts from several multiple sources, including CBO and WSJ, and a look at how long it will take the U.S. economy to return to record 2019 GDP levels.

During the coronavirus crisis, this page is updated weekly with Fritz Meyer's latest observations, as a free service to members of A4A.