The Math Of Retirement

If you want honesty, I did not think highly of the presentation until Q&A when sequence of returns risk was addressed. That helped. Still concerned about historical numbers to generate expected future returns.... a 10% stock return? That flies in the face of all ERP surveys. Also how often does history include both low bond returns and low stock returns? Net, net... this is a complicated topic and the final tables were an interesting way to illustrate. Lowering spending instead of raising stock alloc better

for those of us familiar with Craig's approach, this was repetitive. The final answers about shifting the allocation to be more conservative in the years approaching and immediately following retirement makes little sense to me. If the variable is the duration of the portfolio, then if a 70 y/o and 60 y/o are of equivalent health, then the 60 y/o retiree would have to be more conservative for 10 years longer than the 70 y/o. Sequence risk would seem to affect the duration of a portfolio 100% of the time.

Way too slow