With Covid-Crisis Recession Ending Now, What's Ahead?

Event

Title:
With Covid-Crisis Recession Ending Now, What's Ahead?
When:
Tue, 11. August 2020, 04:00 PM EST - 05:00 PM EST
Category:
Webinars
Created by:
Andrew Gluck

Description

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During the Coronavirus epidemic, Advisors4Advisors is publishing 
free updates between CE classes. 
Fritz Meyer Economic Update

 

Fritz hits the latest economic fundamentals in this 10-minute fiancial economic commentary.  As  an independent economist, Fritz Meyer has no financial product to sell. Some highlights of what he saying now:

-- The worst of the vrius crisis has passed; 2Q20 GDP plunged at an annualized rate of -32.9%. Actual GDP came in almost exactly as expected by the consensus estimate of the latest WSJ survey of economists. 

-- A rebound of +15% is the WSJ consensus forecast for 3Q2020, and the V-shaped recovery is intact.
 
-- What could have been, if not for the Covid pandemic? It's illustrated in a chart.
 
-- The savings rate rocketed in April to account for 32% of personal income, but backed down to 19% in June. However, this compares to the normal range in recent years 5% to 7%. 

-- Real DPI per capita hit a record all-time high due to CARES Act government transfers. For context, he shows component of personal income and shows that wages are down, small business income is down, but goverment transfers up a stunning 106% year-over-year.  

-- PCED from 1.5% has collapsed in the Covid crisis, nowhere near the Fed’s target of 2%, and the Fed does not expect to worry about it heading for the next three years.  

-- We just lived through a decade of 1.5% inflation (CAGR) and we live in a low inflation world.     

-- Expect another round of transfers from the government in a folowup to CARES Act.

 


A Shift In The Stock Market Valuation Paradigm
(Tuesday, July 28, 2020) The new LEI numbers, a paradigm shift in stock valuation metrics, and behavioral finance are the main topics in this nine-minute roundup on the economy from Fritz Meyer. The Covid recession is ending now and he expects the LEI will fully recover to pre-Covid level in 12 months, even after accounting for the recent virus hot spots across parts of the Sunbelt. PEG ratios of the big tech stocks are not outlandish, though the S&P 500 is priced at the high end of the its historical range. PEs, viewed in the context of the .5% PCED level, are nowhere near bubble level, 10-year bond yields a tenth of where they were in the tech stock bubble.

 

 

 



 

Current Financial Economic Conditions; Q&A w/ Fritz Meyer
(July 22, 2020, 930 p.m. EST)  In this 35-minute commentary on current economic fundamentals, Friitz Meyer answers questions from practitioners. 

A4A continuing education classes have received rave reviews from financial professionals for years because of the incisive analysis of our sources. Fritz Meyer is an independent economist and he's been sharing his analysis monthly for nearly a decade on A4A. Frotz's CE classes on current economic conditions average 9.6 rating from attehdees for many years. 

 

 


 

 


(July 13, 2020)  Roth Conversions Amid Covid
This week's client video was not about the financial or economic news. Superceding markets and economic news was this important update for clients, subject toi FINRA review, about a tax strategy created by the constellation of factors amid the Covid epidemic.  

 

 

 

 



(July 3, 2020)  Economic Fundamentals Recovering As Stocks Surged For the Week
Charfs on May manufacturing PMI, new-job creation, unemployment and total employment form a snapshot of what's really happening in the economy.

The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) for the short market week ended  Thursday at 3,130.01, gaining 3.94% from last week and up 33.26% from the March 23rd Covid bear-market low.

 

 

 


Class Description:

The latest economic data has been registering an impressive recovery from the Covid-19 low. July’s job gains and the unemployment rate were both better than expected. The new manufacturing purchasing managers' data came in stronger than expected.

At this one-credit class, independent economist Fritz Meyer updates the GDP and earnings forecasts and relates both to the market’s current valuation.

With the price of gold soaring +29% YTD compared to the S&P 500’s +3%, Fritz also discusses what’s behind the sharp move and puts gold’s recent returns into historic context.
 

Presenting strategic long-term analysis for professional investors since March 2011 on A4A, Fritz Meyer's monthly classes averaged a 4.9-star rating from attendees, and past performance is an indicator of future results. 

This webinar is pending eligibility for one hour of CE credit towards the CIMA® and CPWA® certifications, and it is eligible for CFP® CE, PACE credit toward the CLU® and ChFC® designations and live CPA CPE credit.

 
 
NASBA, CFP Board and IWI as well as other professional accreditation bodies have deemed Fritz Meyer's live monthly classes eligible for continuing education credit since March 2011. 
 
The classes for private wealth advisors are broadcast live on the second Tuesday of every month at 4 ET.  
 
Fritz was a portfolio manager in the mid-1990s at Invesco, one of the world's largest investment companies, and then Senior Investment Strategist for over a decade. Fritz has advised advisors on A4A since March 2011.
 
CFP®, CIMA®, CPWA®, CLU®, ChFC®  and retirement income professionals are eligible for professional education credit for attending a replay anytime of Fritz Meyer's monthly classes as well as for live sessions. CPAs receive continuing professional education (CPE) credit only for live sessions but not for replays. 
 
You will receive an email from This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. confiriming your registration. Please check your junk and clutter folders if you do not receive confirmation after registering. 
 
Upcoming and recent webinars and client communications updates are discussed in the first five- to 10-minutes of the session but not included in the time calculation for continuing education credit.
 
When the S&P 500 closes10% off its last high and during periods of crisis, additional continuing professional ed classes are free with A4A membership.