Long-Term U.S. Fiscal Outlook Leaves Fritz Scratching His Head
Friday, June 19, 2015 12:27
Fritz Meyer’s June 2015 webinar is available for replay anytime, and CFPS, CIMAs, and other professionals can receive continuing education credit 24/7, but we ran out of time to answer questions on the live session.
In this 30-minute video, Fritz offers an update on the perplexing long-term financial outlook for the U.S, addressing the federal debt and deficit spending. Fritz’s analysis is based on the Congressional Budget Office’s latest release forecasting the U.S. fiscal outlook for the next decade.
What economist Fritz Meyer describes is like watching a train wreck in slow motion. He talks about how the U.S. Congress is failing to look beyond the next corner. Around that turn, Fritz is describing an oncoming train driven by entitlement programs. Fritz says we have time now to do something about and it would not be too painful, but waiting carries a high cost that accelerates rapidly starting in about 10 years.
Fritz also answers the four questions posed by attendees:
·One of the heads of Goldman Sachs opined on TV earlier today that the median stock is trading in the 98th percentile and concern about buybacks propping up stocks. Is it possible stocks are expensive when looking beyond the average P/E on operating earnings? What about price/sales, price/bv EV/EBITDA and any other host of metrics? Your thoughts?
·Just read a great mutual fund manager noting that there have been only three periods in the last 53 years in which S&P 500 Index returns have exceeded earnings growth for three consecutive years and he feels there are no areas of absolute value within equities or fixed income. Your thoughts?
·What was rate of return in the example you gave of an investor getting in the market a day after Greenspan's "Irrational Exuberance" speech?
·Are you aware of JP Morgan economist Michael Feroli's call that future GDP growth will be less than 2% because of lack of technological progress? (Bloomberg article 6-9-15). Your thoughts on this?
Fritz experienced a tech glitch at the start of the session, when one of his monitors became unresponsive due to a software problem. I ran the slides from my computer as Fritz spoke, but a couple of attendees were unhappy with us about that. We’re sorry. The vast majority of attendees know such glitches are rare on A4A webinars and were pretty understanding, but Fritz’s average rating slumped to 4.6. Which is kind of like saying LeBron slumped by only scoring 32 points in game six of the NBA Finals.
Great as always.
Too bad it ran overtime... Again
Fritz is the best!
Better this time! Great work
Excellent as usual.
Packed with valuable information
Very good, and timely.
Great job. Thank you.
Too long. Needs to be more efficient with his slides
Lots of technical issues!
Very very good. Except for technical problems at the beginning.
The content was too much for a 1 hour session and it should have been scheduled for 1 and 1/2 hours.
He knows a lot and I really enjoy appreciate what he says,...
Fritz does a great job in the compilation of usable data. Extraordinary from my point of view.
Too much material for the time allotted. The two hour format will rectify this.
Excellent coverage of the topic
Good insights and explanations behind the prevailing trending opinions about the economy. It is interesting to observe the lack of evidentiary data that supports the trend opinions and that also generate stock purchases/sales.
So much information for a 60 minute session.
Went longer than usual today and not everything covered but that's OK
Comments are too verbose...needs to be more concise so can cover the material and not run over the time contract
Very difficult start and too long...
Suggest planning for more time with Fritz....
Fritz seems to be getting more and more "testy" & combative of differing outside opinions. I would prefer a less arrogant update.
Suggestion that Fritz have a slide toward the end of the 3-5 most significant developments since the last month's presentation. Would be helpful as way of pulling key points together for clients.
Today's webinar was particularly helpful at the very end, when Fritz went through the "Who's Who" of doom and gloom soothsayers, all of whom have been proven wrong again and again over time. Fritz is correct. They are never held accountable for their mistaken and downright dreadful predictions. If an RIA was guilty of the same infractions, they would soon be out of a job (or at least lose most of their clients). Really enjoy the excerpts of WSJ articles and others when Fritz highlights them in yellow.
Very informative with current data and world events