The economy is getting better. That means oil prices are on their way higher.
Oil pushed $97 per barrel for the first time in four months, rallying 7% since December and gaining over the last few days on recent economic reports.
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If the Fed decides to continue its monthly bond-buying spree, oil could go even higher on the assumption that the economic recovery will continue to strengthen.
Lower supplies from OPEC and Saudi Arabia will also figure into the mix since the oil market trades on perceptions of liquidity.
The oil market likes the status quo and is a bit fearful that the number of dissenting voices in the Fed will increase. Any change in Fed monetary policy or in oil production from OPEC or Saudi could hold prices in check.
The Fed completes the second day of its January FOMC meeting
on January 30.
The tipoff will be in the Fed statement and more information will be available when the meeting minutes are released about two weeks from now.