Markets Just Have To Muddle Through Debt-Ceiling Negotiations, Then Are Likely To Go Up

Thursday, January 17, 2013 07:49
Markets Just Have To Muddle Through Debt-Ceiling Negotiations, Then Are Likely To Go Up

Tags: Congress | markets | stocks

Three renowned market strategies said the markets have already factored in the impact of the debt ceiling.
Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab, Jeff Rosenberg of BlackRock, and Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett concur did not completely dismiss the idea of a market tumble relative to the debt ceiling.
But they noted that current economic forces should prevent the same buying opportunity the markets gave investors after the 2011 debt ceiling showdown.

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The markets already know the US can survive a credit downgrade. The markets realize a default is not likely and the 2011 experience means the market reaction should be calmer this time around.
Sonders also notes that equities are reasonably valued and could go higher due to low inflation.
Rosenberg expects interest rates to pick up very little if at all and predicts fixed income investments will return single digits in 2013.
Even high yield fixed income will return only 5% to 8%, less than half the 16% returns of 2012.
Rosenberg named municipal bonds one of the greatest beneficiaries of the fiscal cliff deal with tax receipts rising from the recovery of the housing market and the diminished chances of meaningful tax reform.
Ezrati says if the markets are already priced for ugly events, all they have to do is muddle through the event to then go up.
He says Washington won’t solve the nation’s fiscal problems but it will avoid some of the great fears.

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