Analysts Say Friday Unemployment Report Is Solid If Not Sustainable, Adding Enough Confidence To Revise GDP Growth Forecasts Upward

Monday, October 08, 2012 08:19
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Analysts Say Friday Unemployment Report Is Solid If Not Sustainable, Adding Enough Confidence To Revise GDP Growth Forecasts Upward

Tags: Congress | economic indicators | Economic Outlook

Labor Department figures confirmed on Friday that business hiring is maintaining its momentum, adding an average of 121,000 workers per month over the third quarter.

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Comparisons for total payrolls doubled from the previous quarter, averaging 146,000 per month versus the second quarter average monthly addition of 67,000.
 
Fears of a pullback in hiring were fueled by Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warnings that the upcoming expiration of current tax laws will throw the economy decidedly back into recession.
 
But the jobs reports overall suggest the economy is expanding at about a 2% trend-like rate, in line with the 2.2% average quarterly growth in gross domestic product (GDP) since June 2009 when the recession ended.
 
Confidence in the economy’s growth is spurring upward revisions for GDP growth as strength in the auto, housing, consumer sentiment, and consumer spending segments augment the lower jobless claims.
 
A group of senators is already working on a bipartisan plan to address the fiscal cliff situation and it is widely expected that some laws will be allowed to expire but not all.
 
Other analysts say the unemployment report for September was solid but may be unsustainable. Most admit that the economy is on a slow growth path, but not a slowing growth path.
 
The unemployment report shows that restrictions in capital spending are not broadening out to the labor market.

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