Despite a sense that a bill to move RIA supervision to a self-regulatory organization seems inevitable in the House, the Senate promises to be an entirely different ball game.
There is no push in the Senate Banking Committee to take RIAs away from the SEC.
Unlike the House, where Financial Services Committee chair Spencer Bachus is eager to launch reforms, the Senate panel is run by Tim Johnson of industry-friendly South Dakota.
Johnson seems to want to study the issue in the detail it deserves before making a move one way or the other.
Marilyn Mohrman-Gillis, who heads up public policy efforts at the Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards, says there's "virtually no chance" of anything happening in the Senate this year.
Others aren't so sure, but it's definitely too early to call this one.