Israelsen's New Way To Visualize The Risk Of Outliving A Portfolio Gets 4.9 Stars
Saturday, March 26, 2016 12:06
Dr. Craig Israelsen says something unusual happened at his webinar yesterday. Israelsen had just shown a new data visualization technique for illustrating a retiree’s risk of running out of money at an A4A webinar. While the 4.9-star rating Israelsen received from attendees was unusual — fewer than 5% of A4A webinars receive a 4.9 score and no webinar has ever received five stars — what was unusual was the feedback from attendees.
“Any way to use the (fabulous!) radar graphics to emulate, say, a 65/35 type portfolio with some international exposure?,” on attendee asked.
“Awesome presentation,” another attendees chatted in, adding, “I think Yale has synthetic international equities data prior to the MSCI EFA prior to 1970. Perhaps Dr. Israelsen could also synthetically produce TIP returns using inflation and bond prices with the assistance from research assistants.”
“Pretty good, but I think the 35-year analysis would be lost on clients, as opposed to the 2001-15 which everyone has lived through,” another A4A member said. “Just a thought.”
And then there was very good question: “Does the survival rate more or less correlate with what you would see if you ran the same data through a Monte Carlo simulation to determine the probability of success?”
Israelsen was energized by the thoughtful suggestions from attendees. “I felt like they were really engaged,” he said, shortly after the session.
This five-minute from the 75 minute session gives you a look at this new data visualization method for retirement income planning. But to learn how Israelsen says advisors should use a radar graph to illustrate portfolio longevity to clients, you must to be an A4A member ($60) a year to view the full 75-minute session.
Very nice visualization tool.
The radar graphs were excellent. Great topic with great applicability to our clients!
Very good. Especially liked the new XL graph. Very descriptive
He is incredibly effective in communicating this topic.
Great information love the graph concept
Good-charts with 20-25 yr. Will be helpful
Excellent webinar. Well timed. Good information.
Awesome. I'd like to see a follow up presentation
Awesome - the new graphics are show stopping - even for those that don't "get-it".
Informative and well-paced
Great presentation, Craig's follow up will only enhance today's information, Thank you!
Outstanding in understanding why the 7 Twelve model works
Excellent, informative presentation
Great webinar, enjoy listening Craig whenever he presents on A4A
FANTASTIC. This is my first "Craig Israelsen" webinar, will not be my last! Thanks Andy!
Great - I think these radar charts - which I never used or even ever thought about before - provide an excellent way to communicate long-term success/failure concepts to clients in a most meaningful way.
This research about more asset classes is vital. Clients come to my firm NOT aware of reits and TIPS and Natural Resources. Yes, my (and Craig's) solution is "more complicated", but it isn't hard for me to implement. It's fine to be more complex when you are far, far better. That's my real world of working with clients feedback. Great work.
I realize that this is not an actively traded strategy and that the proof is in the numbers, but listening to the statistics does get a little dry. Probably why I did not become a math major. That should in no way diminish the importance of the info, it's just not a "sexy" presentation.
I really like the radar graph concept...I'm sure Craig already has it on a slide somewhere, but it would be interesting to see the 4 (or 5 if you count 7/12) longevity illustrations all on one graph per withdrawal rate.
Andy is the best presenter !
The webinar provided interesting and useful information. I would like to see periods other than 15 years used. While diversification will always prove beneficial over long periods of time, I suspect 7Twelve would not look quite as good if the time period was 10 or 20 years as opposed to 15.
Classically superb in Dr. Craig Israelsen typical laid back understated style!